BANK NIFTY ANALYSIS

By Saint

Updated on 17/08/2015

Last week, we were holding shorts taken below the lows of August 6th, and we look for booking partial profit on the close of August 12th. The rest of the position is trailed by stops above the highs of August 11th, and by the end of the last week, we are still holding shorts.

Updated on 10/08/2015

Last week, we were holdings longs and latest trail stop loss was below August 6th Lows, and we are looking to short below August 6th Lows as well.

Updated on 3/08/2015

We were holding shorts at the beginning of the week, and we brought our stops to the highs of 28th July, which got triggered on 30th July. Above the highs of 30th July, we are taking our longs as well which got triggered on 31st July, with stop loss below the lows of 30th July. We are carry forwarding the longs, for the next week.

Updated on 27/07/2015

We exited our longs below the lows of 15th July and taken shorts as well, with the stop loss above the highs of 17th July. At the end of the week, the stop loss is brought down to the highs of 23rd July.

Updated on 21/07/2015

We were holdings long with stop loss below the lows of 8th July. Last week, price moved up nicely as well, and our latest stop loss now comes below the lows of 13th July.

Updated on 13/07/2015

We take longs above the highs of 30th June, with Initial stop loss below the lows of 29th June. After a nice up move, we move our stop loss to the lows of 1st July and holding it. Last week, price moved nicely, and still we are holding our longs with the stop loss below 8th July Lows.

Updated on 06/07/2015

We exited our longs in previous to previous week when our trail stop loss got triggered, and we closed the trade with a profit. When last week began, we were looking for possible trade opportunities. We take longs above the highs of 30th June, with Initial stop loss below the lows of 29th June. After a nice up move, we move our stop loss to the lows of 1st July and holding it. This week, once price starts unfolding, we look for taking relevant decision as per the situation.

Updated on 29/06/2015

We were holding our longs with Stop Loss below the lows of 12th June, when last week began, and we trailed our stops and got exited below the lows of 25th June. After that we were SOH (Sit on Hands) and now waiting for possible new trade.

Updated on 22/06/2015

We were holding our shorts with Stop Loss above the highs of 11th June and we exited above the highs of 15th June and re-enter longs (above the highs of 15th June) with a stop loss below the lows of 12th June.

Updated on 15/06/2015

We were holding our shorts with Stop Loss above Thursday (4th June) high, when the week began. And this week, as price unfolded, we look for partial profit booking on 7th May Lows (support area). Rest of the position, we are holding with the stop loss above the highs of 11th June. Daily chart still pointing towards downtrend with lower pivot highs and pivot lows. 

Updated on 08/06/2015

We were holding BNF long last week, and, when price hit Supply zone formed around mid-April, we take partial profit there on Monday (1st June) and move SAR below Monday low. On Tuesday (2nd June) we are out of Long and we are in Short with initial stop loss above Monday high. Currently we are holding shorts with Stop Loss above Thursday (4th June) high.

Updated on 01/06/2015

When last week began, we were holding shorts with a stop loss above highs of 22nd May. And we look to exit the shorts above the highs made on Monday (25th May) because of Virtual Low. Then we can take longs above the highs of Wednesday (27th May) with stop loss at the lows of 26nd May. Once price starts unfolding this week, we will be looking to trail stops accordingly.

Updated on 25/05/2015

Last week we were looking to trade both ways (long or short), depending upon the price action unfoldment, and we had a rally followed by a Virtual high on 20th May, suggesting that the rally might end here. So, we look to short below 21st May lows, with a stop loss above the high of 22nd May. If price hits our stop loss, then we are out of the trade and look for next opportunity, and if price moves in our favour, then we will manage the trade accordingly.   

Updated on 18/05/2015

We were holding shorts (after taking a partial profit last to last week) with stop loss above 6th May highs, when last week began. As the price unfolded, we bring our stop loss to the highs of 12th May candle, which got triggered on Friday. Bank Nifty Chart was in a minor sideways based on the last week price action, and in this week, if there is either a breakout or break down, we would like to take fresh positions, accordingly.

Updated on 11/05/2015

We have exited our short last week and were looking for both long and short opportunities. As the trend is down, we re-enter short in Bank Nifty below 4th May Low on 6th May and on 7th may we book partial profit in demand zone, rest we are holding with SL above 6th may. If price continue to move down further this week, we may look to add to our short and if we see some sign of bullish strength or if our SL is triggered we may look to exit from short.

Updated on 04/05/2015

We were holding our shorts, when last week began, and on 27th April closing, we see Virtual Low on the daily charts. So, on 28th April Open, we can book our profits and exit the position. Once this is done, we are waiting for the next trade, and it could be in the short side, if price continues to move down, or it could be in the long side as well, if there is any sign of trend reversal. So, we wait for this week price to unfold, and then take the trading decision accordingly.

Updated on 27/04/2015

Bank Nifty, as per last week we are short in Bank Nifty on Daily and it is still not showing any strength, so we are still holding Bank Nifty short with Trailing Stop Loss at 18675. We may see pause in Bank Nifty near 17600 - 17700 demand zone before continuing further down.

Updated on 20/04/2015

Last week, Bank Nifty not able to hold above the definitive area, which suggest that trend might continue to remain bearish, and we look for shorting opportunity below Wednesday low, and now we can hold it by trailing the position using stop loss.

Updated on 13/04/2015

The Intermediate trend in the Bank Nifty daily chart is in probable trend change mode. Bulls show strength by able to push price back in definitive area. At this stage we are looking for both way play (we look to take either long or short), depending upon the future price action which tells us an indication of strength between Bulls and Bears and we go with whoever is winner.

Updated on 06/04/2015

The Intermediate Trend on daily time frame chart is still down in Bank Nifty, so we are looking for short opportunity this week as well. As of now, Bank Nifty is in a Rally within an Intermediate Downtrend, and we wait for price to confirm decline within this downtrend or any pullback or any pivot break, to resume our trading by taking shorts.

Updated on 30/03/2015

The Intermediate trend in the daily chart of Bank Nifty enters into a downtrend on March 4th.Our focus now is only on the shorts direction. The previous week breaks Intermediate Pivot lows and establishes a clear downtrend on the daily charts. D-VRL and Demand Area break confirm our analysis. We now wait for further shorts opportunities this week as trend either makes a pause or makes a further move to the down.

Not only cut the Losses, but Ride the Profits!

Image source - www.freepik.com

This blog was first appeared in the http://www.tradersaintforum.com

Adherence to stop losses is important and vital, but allowing a trend trade to run its course before tampering with it is as important, if not more………Let us take another Trader. Unlike our Trader friend above, this Trader is more disciplined, more ruthless. He knows the importance of stops, he realises the importance of his capital and its preservation,…….he therefore adheres to his stops. Not only does he adhere but he realises that stops are to be placed at vital points (talking Tech Trading). He takes on the Market and after 10 trades, he makes 5 losses, and 5 wins i.e., 5x-5x=0.He has lost commissions, and misc. charges and have nothing. His next 10 trades have 6 losses and 4 gains…all gains are about x, and losses at x each. He ends this on a losing note as well.

This Trader has gotten it better than the previous guy……..he is following half the Wisdom and finds himself perennially at Breakeven to Mild losses. After 20 such trades, he realises that his fallacy was in placing stops in the first place. The next 10 sees him hurtling down and joining the previous Trader in his ranks……..what has happened is a slow breakdown of the discipline by the Market, which is nothing but a Totality of Minds in action. Frustrated and disappointed, he thinks that his fault lies in the method, his system, and runs around in circles collecting various indicators to find the Holy Grail.

So too, at the end of the month, when we look at our Trade Analysis, we kick ourselves for not adhering to our stops……We notice instantly that our stops of x was not adhered to a few times and that led to the downfall in that month…….Nothing could be further than the truth. What the Month end analysis does not show is that the profits earned of say x or 2x was in a move of 10x or 12x…..to put it crisply, we did not capitalise on the move. Not capitalising sends the mind into Regret. Regret sends the Mind into Wrong Decision. Trades are taken when they should not have been. Stops are placed at incorrect points. Multiple useless, unnecessary trades are put, and the broker instead laughs all the way to the bank. Even if stops are taken, the trader does not make enough to cover the losses sustained. Sustained lack of victories sends the Mind into Defeat Mode and he then finds every possible way to shoot himself in the foot…..

The Wisdom of the Ancients has always been to cut the losses, and to ride the Profits…..Somehow, the 2nd half of that great wisdom stands neglected……Obey that Wisdom, and great profits follow. Neglect it, and Peril will follow in a matter of time.

About  Author

Dr. SREEKUMAR RAVINDRAN

Founder and Chief Managing Director at Tradonomix

Dr. Sreekumar Ravindran, known as Saint in trading forums such as Trader Saint Forum & Traderji, is the visionary and mind behind Tradonomix. He is a passionate trader himself and has spent over 15 years in researching and accumulating knowledge of trading and applying the same in real-time.

Dr. Sreekumar strongly believes that trading is a learnt skill and that awareness needs to be created for trading as a profession for the common man. Tradonomix is one of his first steps towards this belief, from where he intends to take Tradonomix to an advanced technology-driven social platform for learning, and achieving financial independence.