BANK NIFTY ANALYSIS

By Saint

Updated on 17/08/2015

Last week, we were holding shorts taken below the lows of August 6th, and we look for booking partial profit on the close of August 12th. The rest of the position is trailed by stops above the highs of August 11th, and by the end of the last week, we are still holding shorts.

Updated on 10/08/2015

Last week, we were holdings longs and latest trail stop loss was below August 6th Lows, and we are looking to short below August 6th Lows as well.

Updated on 3/08/2015

We were holding shorts at the beginning of the week, and we brought our stops to the highs of 28th July, which got triggered on 30th July. Above the highs of 30th July, we are taking our longs as well which got triggered on 31st July, with stop loss below the lows of 30th July. We are carry forwarding the longs, for the next week.

Updated on 27/07/2015

We exited our longs below the lows of 15th July and taken shorts as well, with the stop loss above the highs of 17th July. At the end of the week, the stop loss is brought down to the highs of 23rd July.

Updated on 21/07/2015

We were holdings long with stop loss below the lows of 8th July. Last week, price moved up nicely as well, and our latest stop loss now comes below the lows of 13th July.

Updated on 13/07/2015

We take longs above the highs of 30th June, with Initial stop loss below the lows of 29th June. After a nice up move, we move our stop loss to the lows of 1st July and holding it. Last week, price moved nicely, and still we are holding our longs with the stop loss below 8th July Lows.

Updated on 06/07/2015

We exited our longs in previous to previous week when our trail stop loss got triggered, and we closed the trade with a profit. When last week began, we were looking for possible trade opportunities. We take longs above the highs of 30th June, with Initial stop loss below the lows of 29th June. After a nice up move, we move our stop loss to the lows of 1st July and holding it. This week, once price starts unfolding, we look for taking relevant decision as per the situation.

Updated on 29/06/2015

We were holding our longs with Stop Loss below the lows of 12th June, when last week began, and we trailed our stops and got exited below the lows of 25th June. After that we were SOH (Sit on Hands) and now waiting for possible new trade.

Updated on 22/06/2015

We were holding our shorts with Stop Loss above the highs of 11th June and we exited above the highs of 15th June and re-enter longs (above the highs of 15th June) with a stop loss below the lows of 12th June.

Updated on 15/06/2015

We were holding our shorts with Stop Loss above Thursday (4th June) high, when the week began. And this week, as price unfolded, we look for partial profit booking on 7th May Lows (support area). Rest of the position, we are holding with the stop loss above the highs of 11th June. Daily chart still pointing towards downtrend with lower pivot highs and pivot lows. 

Updated on 08/06/2015

We were holding BNF long last week, and, when price hit Supply zone formed around mid-April, we take partial profit there on Monday (1st June) and move SAR below Monday low. On Tuesday (2nd June) we are out of Long and we are in Short with initial stop loss above Monday high. Currently we are holding shorts with Stop Loss above Thursday (4th June) high.

Updated on 01/06/2015

When last week began, we were holding shorts with a stop loss above highs of 22nd May. And we look to exit the shorts above the highs made on Monday (25th May) because of Virtual Low. Then we can take longs above the highs of Wednesday (27th May) with stop loss at the lows of 26nd May. Once price starts unfolding this week, we will be looking to trail stops accordingly.

Updated on 25/05/2015

Last week we were looking to trade both ways (long or short), depending upon the price action unfoldment, and we had a rally followed by a Virtual high on 20th May, suggesting that the rally might end here. So, we look to short below 21st May lows, with a stop loss above the high of 22nd May. If price hits our stop loss, then we are out of the trade and look for next opportunity, and if price moves in our favour, then we will manage the trade accordingly.   

Updated on 18/05/2015

We were holding shorts (after taking a partial profit last to last week) with stop loss above 6th May highs, when last week began. As the price unfolded, we bring our stop loss to the highs of 12th May candle, which got triggered on Friday. Bank Nifty Chart was in a minor sideways based on the last week price action, and in this week, if there is either a breakout or break down, we would like to take fresh positions, accordingly.

Updated on 11/05/2015

We have exited our short last week and were looking for both long and short opportunities. As the trend is down, we re-enter short in Bank Nifty below 4th May Low on 6th May and on 7th may we book partial profit in demand zone, rest we are holding with SL above 6th may. If price continue to move down further this week, we may look to add to our short and if we see some sign of bullish strength or if our SL is triggered we may look to exit from short.

Updated on 04/05/2015

We were holding our shorts, when last week began, and on 27th April closing, we see Virtual Low on the daily charts. So, on 28th April Open, we can book our profits and exit the position. Once this is done, we are waiting for the next trade, and it could be in the short side, if price continues to move down, or it could be in the long side as well, if there is any sign of trend reversal. So, we wait for this week price to unfold, and then take the trading decision accordingly.

Updated on 27/04/2015

Bank Nifty, as per last week we are short in Bank Nifty on Daily and it is still not showing any strength, so we are still holding Bank Nifty short with Trailing Stop Loss at 18675. We may see pause in Bank Nifty near 17600 - 17700 demand zone before continuing further down.

Updated on 20/04/2015

Last week, Bank Nifty not able to hold above the definitive area, which suggest that trend might continue to remain bearish, and we look for shorting opportunity below Wednesday low, and now we can hold it by trailing the position using stop loss.

Updated on 13/04/2015

The Intermediate trend in the Bank Nifty daily chart is in probable trend change mode. Bulls show strength by able to push price back in definitive area. At this stage we are looking for both way play (we look to take either long or short), depending upon the future price action which tells us an indication of strength between Bulls and Bears and we go with whoever is winner.

Updated on 06/04/2015

The Intermediate Trend on daily time frame chart is still down in Bank Nifty, so we are looking for short opportunity this week as well. As of now, Bank Nifty is in a Rally within an Intermediate Downtrend, and we wait for price to confirm decline within this downtrend or any pullback or any pivot break, to resume our trading by taking shorts.

Updated on 30/03/2015

The Intermediate trend in the daily chart of Bank Nifty enters into a downtrend on March 4th.Our focus now is only on the shorts direction. The previous week breaks Intermediate Pivot lows and establishes a clear downtrend on the daily charts. D-VRL and Demand Area break confirm our analysis. We now wait for further shorts opportunities this week as trend either makes a pause or makes a further move to the down.

Be a trader after your office hours

Before you click away from this blog post, rolling your eyes at being asked to take on yet one more role as a working mother, I invite you to stay just a little while longer! Kick your feet up, let’s have a coffee and chat.

We are in a pioneering generation of Indian women. We are still the primary homemakers, chefs and caretakers of our families. And yet many of us are simultaneously holding down careers that run parallel to our husbands, both financially and in terms of time commitments.

We go through our daily routines like a circus performer:  a juggler walking on a tightrope. Each hour of the day that passes, we add more balls to those that we have to keep juggling in the air. Breakfasts fed, lunch boxes packed, morning commutes, office deadlines and deliverables, and then the evening commute, dinner, homework. If we’re lucky, we may have introduced one or two other balls in the air too – maybe a little exercise, or relaxation time. We know and dread the cost of letting even one of those balls drop. So where, you ask, is there the time or balance to add one more ball to those we’re already juggling?

Well let’s get back to the juggler on a tightrope analogy. The key difference between us as working mothers, and that circus juggler up on the tightrope is simple – a safety net. Even the simplest of country circus fairs provides a safety net to save their precarious aerialists from a deadly fall.

So how about your personal safety net? Traditional financial savings instruments like savings accounts and pension plans deal with your long-term financial security as you approach retirement. But do you have the financial wherewithal to deal with daily ebbs and flows in financial situations? What kind of a present-day safety net do you have underneath you?

That’s where trading after hours can come in. Using the simple principles of #TeachAWomanToFish, a special course offered via Tradonomix, you can turn a few consolidated hours during the course of a whole week into the sort of safety net that gives you the confidence to continue on your high-wire balancing act.

Tradonomix’s accelerated weekend course gives you the ability to understand the markets, and to apply that all important aspect of timing to it in a confident manner. The focus is trade in a way that is more about up-front analysis and less about hourly button-pushing and worrying. The skills learnt through the course, and especially applied in conjunction with easy-to-use online trading platforms, help you to produce a revenue stream that runs parallel to your own, with the added advantage of providing liquidity when compared to other savings asset classes.

They key to it all, is to maintain that balancing act while keeping ourselves secure. The key to Tradonomix’s trading tools is all about timing. I think I have taken up enough of your time now, but do consider coming back to attend a weekend course and learn to add the ‘trader’ ball to the ones you so successfully juggle.

Beginners Introduction to Price Action Trading – Part 1

This article is aimed at beginners who are completely new to trading/investing and want to know about how the same is done via charts.

A chart is nothing but a graphical representation of data. There are different way to represent this data like bar chart, line chart, candlestick chart, point and figure charts etc., but for our learning we stick to candlestick chart. The price data is obtained from the exchange and plotted using a Charting Software.

Each and every Candle comprises of

1) Open – The price at which trading commenced for the session

2) High – The highest price at which it got traded during the session

3) Low – The lowest price at which it got traded during the session

4) Close – The price at which trading closed for that particular session and

5) Volume – The number of shares traded during that particular session (shown in histogram format below candlesticks)

When people talk about price action trading, they are simply referring to the fact, that they make their trading/investing decision to buy/sell a particular stock using a simple candlestick chart along with volumes. When candle is plotted on a continuous basis on a chart, one can see the overall price movement/trend in that particular stock.

For ex., have a look at the stock chart shown below. The stock name is Hindustan Petroleum and the each and every day, a candle is plotted on a chart, along with the volume for that particular session.

What we do with the above chart, we will discuss in the next part. Meanwhile, any doubts on the basics, feel free to post your questions, and we will answer it back. 

About Author
Jayaraj V 
Director - Academy at Tradonomix

Jayaraj with an MBA in Finance and comprehensive teaching experience to boast of, trading acted like a magnet, pulling him towards it, to trade the financial market. The main attraction, he says, was the dynamic nature of trading along with all the challenges it came with. He works as the Director – Academy at Tradonomix.

 

Trading is a Mirror!!

Before we start anything in life, we need to know all that there is to know about it. This fact is no different in the world of trading. Do you want to be a successful trader ?If your answer is yes, then we do need to know what trading is all about, not just in methodologies or strategies ,but the underlying thoughts and emotions as well. 

When someone asks you what Trading is for you, we have different answers.
Trading is a Dance, says one … Trading is a Sport, says another … Trading is War, cries out the third… Pure Music, says yet another…. Power…. Drama …. Rock Climbing……

Trading is a Mirror. The Mirror that shows us what we are. It reflects the fear, greed, patience, confidence, over-confidence, euphoria, regret hope and a myriad of other emotions battling for supremacy within us. It exposes us, our frailties and our weaknesses, our strengths and our power .It shows us how we accept our successes and our failures. The question before you go down this Path called Trading is: Are you really ready for it? Are you willing to expose yourselves and accept yourself for what you are? Willing to make changes and convert your weaknesses into strengths? Are you really willing to stop pinning the blame on everything and everyone other than yourselves, accept it as your mistake and to change yourselves? Trading is not just about each and every trade taken, it is all about how we tackle these conflicts raging within us. 

When Panic sets in when a trade work against us  , when we are fearful and ready to grab profits the moment a trend has merely begun its move and to focus on money and not the process, the Mirror has just exposed our weaknesses as we crumble to our Mad Mind. Trading is about watching all our emotions running when we are ready to take some trade, and to step aside and observe these flow of thoughts.

The hand shivers, we just are not able to pull the trigger when the time comes to enter the trade .When we do manage to enter a trade but it does not go the way we want,…anxiety,fear and panic make a merry dance. We are not relaxed…. Price starts to move towards our stop loss, we start to sweat ,or instead it starts off on the desired direction,…. happiness, euphoria, greatness, power…..and then suddenly the fear to lose …to lose what we are gaining. The Mind now begins to think about yet another emotion, Fear of Regret…it starts acting on that emotion ….Things become even worse when price hits our stop losses but we are not able to get out from our trade….Losses mount…. Stubbornness sets in, we refuse to exit and instead add to our positions to make our holding cost lower. Price does not correct, the fall continues, it is too far now, too late, too painful…. we start praying to god in Hope …some miracle, some magic …..silently hoping for some miracle to happen….some magic which suddenly turn losses into breakeven…. Nothing happens,too much pain now, we cannot take the agony, this suffering  any longer… we come out of our positions, taking the big loss.The account is badly hit, pride battered ,ego bruised…but we feel relaxed. Price still moves against our original position, but we are happy now that we are already out….It could be the time when markets start reversing again, we can always reenter, we salvage the temporary peace for now, bliss….and then this cycle starts again .This goes on and on till correct observation of one’s mind leads to correct thought and subsequently correct action.

To watch all these emotions….to watch ourselves without any prejudice …to watch what we are inside, like in a clear mirror….this is what it takes to be a professional Trader, and to be a professional Trader one need to be ready to change oneself ….but to change ourselves first we need to realise where we are wrong ….where our fault lies…our strengths and our weaknesses … and start working on that with a clear, unprejudiced mind-set …to be ready to change oneself …

Trading,. ….is watching oneself in a Mirror!!! Yes it is….and with experience and with time and a persistent, adamant and obstinate desire for change, one can indeed change that image in the Mirror.

About  Author

Harish Chheda

Chief Knowledge Officer at Tradonomix

Harish has more than 2 decades of experience under his belt. His expertise lies in a number of fields, including Swing Trading, Intraday Trading, and Positional Trading in Equities, Commodities, and Forex. He is also adept in Business Risk Management with Derivative Products.

At Tradonomix, he brings to practice the knowledge he has accumulated in the last 22 years. He is the Chief Knowledge officer at Tradonomix

We offer trading course for beginner, intermediate & advanced level. Please visit www.tradonomix.com to explore our trading courses.

Nifty Future 60min Elliott wave Analysis

Ride the Bull,Ride the Bear

One would have commonly heard the words "Bull Market" or "Bear Market". Did you know that the average investor detects the Bull market only at the near end of the move and the Bear Market to be so very painful that the investor either holds all his stocks and gives up, once again, at the near end of the Bear Market?Most investors give up mid-way and never enter the Markets again. Did you know that there are ways to be able to spot the Bull before it makes its run upwards and gives up his positions before the Bear takes total grip?Did you also know that Professional Traders/Investors make profits from the Bear Markets as well and are able to sell first and buy back later and thus gain in what is deemed as a Crash and the onset of Bad times?   Stock Markets move in upswings and downswings .They are called the Bull Markets in upswings, and Bear Markets in downswings. The Bull Market  Deemed by novice investors as positive, a smile on their faces through the day as their funds get on to the positive and their investments multiply ,the Bull Market is associated with all things positive. Great adjectives on the smiling side are attributed to these years as wealth managers go their merry ways to get clients on board and traders and investors who love anything "up" and "positive" start flooding the markets. Bull markets strongly start attracting investors as it gets vertical, more climactic as neighbours and associates laugh at the person yet to get into the markets, as easy money gets made, and as is the nature of the human mind, everything that goes up will always keep going up. Reality though is far from it.  The Bear Market  Deemed by novice investors as negative, a frown on their faces through the day as their funds get on to the negative and their investments lose value ,the Bear Market is associated with all things negative. Great adjectives on the frowning,sulking side are attributed to these years as wealth managers  still go about their merry ways to get clients on board with a promise that as markets drop, these are actually discount rates and one should keep buying as markets plummet. Novice traders and investors who hate anything "down" and "negative" start leaving the markets. Bear markets strongly start sending investors into a panic as prices gets vertically down. Fear grips everyone as stocks and commodities bought during various phases of the Bull Market now start crashing. Doom and Gloom fill everyone's mind as neighbours and associates laugh at the person getting into the markets. There is pain, there is fear, there is doom, there is chaos, and there is gloom, and as is the nature of the human mind, everything that goes down must always keep going down. Reality once again is far from it.  Identifying Bears and Bulls The true Bull Market, the Uptrend, starts at a point where investors and new traders have given up hope that this Market will ever rise again. The true Bear Market starts at a point where the Investors are at the heights of Euphoria. The Professional Trader uses charts, many professional investors do the same ,for the chart correctly depicts human emotions and their play. Correct  decisions can be made with correct reading, correct reading comes from correct knowledge and the exact point where the Bull starts and ends,and where the Bear starts and ends can be accurately determined.  Riding The Bull With correct knowledge, the Bull Trend can be detected far before the smiles come onto the faces of the common folks. Far before it practically gets impossible to get onto it, let alone Ride it. Do notice that the word used is " detected", not anticipated, not predicted, not guessed .It can be accurately detected and ,following all the Rules and adhering to the Knowledge that we have, that Trend can be ridden.  Riding The Bear This is the Big Negative, the place and time for tears to flow and gush forth, but on the contrary, this is the time where the Pro Trader is all smiles ,the Pro Investor who is a Bulls only Investor is also all smiles as he awaits his next opportunity. They are far from tearful. Professional traders make huge gains during this time. Frowns and tears continue for the novices as Professionals step in, with glee and capitalize on the tears of the others. The Bear Market can be detected by correct knowledge, and the Bear too can be ridden to its final move. Conclusion Human emotions are at play when one gets into the markets. One must learn how to correctly identify change in trends. Price action trading eliminates the focus on the Bear and the Bull, it changes the focus from up and down to correct and incorrect. Huge gains can be made either directions. For that, Knowledge ,as always, is Key.

Direction of Trends – Uptrend, Downtrend & Sideways!

Image Source www.freepik.com 

This blog was first appeared in 2007 in a popular trading forum. 

How to determine the direction of the Trend?

Look at your right hand with the palm facing you.First we have the little finger.The Ring Finger takes out the high of the little finger and therefore makes a higher high and low as compared to the little finger.The middle finger makes a higher high and higher low as compared to the ring finger.We have therefore an uptrend.The index finger makes a lower high and a lower low as compared to the middle finger.The thumb makes a lower high and low as compared to the index finger.We have therefore a downtrend.

Just as trend can be classified according to the direction,so too can we categorise trends into 3 categories

MAJOR ,INTERMEDIATE and NEAR TERM TRENDS.

Simply put,major trends last for greater than 6 months.Intermediate trends last between 3 weeks to 6 months.Near term trends last from a few days to 3weeks.

From a chart perspective, the major trend is seen by looking at the monthly charts.The intermediate trend from the weekly charts,and the near term trend from the daily charts.

What is seen as a downtrend on the daily charts may be nothing but a pullback on the weekly charts,and is not even evident on the monthly charts.What is seen as a downtrend on the weekly charts and a catastrophic crash on the daily may be nothing but a monthly pullback.

It is important as traders to know these different time frames and trade accordingly.The practical aspects of profiting from this knowledge,we can come to later.

For now,we don't know much......but a step at a time for now.We have our charts.All we know is that in any chart of any time frame,we can have only 3 possibilities in direction,and only 3 possibilities in categorisation.The eye can only see what the brain knows........these early days are to be spent in teaching the brain so that the eye sees the pattern from a mile.Pour over your charts and train yourself in detecting which trend the stock is in currently.It is a first step but an important first step.

About  Author

Dr. SREEKUMAR RAVINDRAN

Founder and Chief Managing Director at Tradonomix

Dr. Sreekumar Ravindran, known as Saint in trading forums such as Trader Saint Forum & Traderji, is the visionary and mind behind Tradonomix. He is a passionate trader himself and has spent over 15 years in researching and accumulating knowledge of trading and applying the same in real-time.

Dr. Sreekumar strongly believes that trading is a learnt skill and that awareness needs to be created for trading as a profession for the common man. Tradonomix is one of his first steps towards this belief, from where he intends to take Tradonomix to an advanced technology-driven social platform for learning, and achieving financial independence.